Voltar à meta de inflação em 2017

O ano de 2016 terminou com uma boa notícia. A despeito de todas as dificuldades políticas e econômicas, logramos chegar com uma taxa de inflação acumulada em 12 meses (IPCA) de 6,3%, praticamente no limite superior da “meta” de inflação (de 4,5% mais ou menos 2%). Não é pouca coisa.
Ela caiu de 10,7%, em dezembro de 2015, para 6,3% em dezembro de 2016. Em matéria de inflação, o ano foi muito interessante.
A taxa acumulada dos últimos 12 meses resistiu bravamente ao afrouxamento da demanda global, permanecendo em torno de 9% até agosto, enquanto o PIB caía 4,5% e o desemprego aumentava 3% entre setembro de 2015 e o seu homólogo de 2016. Em agosto, a inflação ainda era de 9%. A partir daí caiu para 6,3% em dezembro, cedendo 2,7 pontos percentuais, cerca de 30%, em apenas quatro meses.
O componente principal dessa redução foi a queda de preços dos produtos que compõem o grupo “alimentação e bebidas”, incluídos no IPCA e que têm um peso de cerca de 26% em seu cálculo.
Ele caiu, no índice acumulado em 12 meses, de 13,9%, em agosto, para 8,6% em dezembro, uma queda de 5,3 pontos que, multiplicada por seu peso no índice (26%), resulta em 1,4, ou seja, praticamente a metade da redução da taxa de inflação do período.
Esse fato tem diversas explicações. Os propensos a aceitar o programa do governo Temer creem que se deva a uma mudança nas expectativas de inflação, criada pela firmeza do Banco Central, que reafirmou que sua única missão é conduzir a taxa de inflação à meta de 4,5%. Os que o rejeitam dizem que ela foi, apenas, o resultado da tremenda recessão, causada por Temer, que estamos vivendo. A explicação verdadeira é uma combinação dessas duas causas.
É importante reconhecer que boa parte do aumento de preço dos alimentos foi resultado da péssima safra de 2015/2016 que, devido a efeitos climáticos, foi 11% menor do que a de 2014/2015. Os preços só começaram a cair quando ela já estava colhida, isto é, quando não havia mais razão para os agentes econômicos reterem os estoques e especularem nos preços.
Isso sugere um efeito muito positivo sobre a continuidade da queda da inflação. As previsões de crescimento da safra 2016/2017 são que ela será maior (se as condições climáticas continuarem “normais”): qualquer coisa como 14% (arroz, 10%, feijão, 24%, milho, 27%, e soja, 9%).
Mesmo que haja uma recuperação da atividade de 1% a 2%, há uma boa probabilidade de que voltemos à meta de inflação em 2017, o que abre um espaço para a redução da taxa de juros real, com todas as suas consequências positivas para o avanço do equilíbrio fiscal.

Fonte: uol

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